The Panicky Knicks Fan Contingency Plan

2017 NBA Draft Preview

The New York Knicks have been out of luck for a while, and the NBA’s draft lottery is no exception. Fans can argue all month about how the Knicks have bad luck or how they’ll be cursed until James Dolan does right by Charles Oakley, but no matter what, the Knicks are stuck with the 8th pick for better or for worse.

Whatever you do, don’t panic. In 2015, the Knickerbockers dropped a spot in the draft as well, and the general consensus was that the Knicks misfortune had turned out to be a blessing in disguise since Kristaps Porzingis has become the frontman for the Knicks’ future. However, concluding that dumb luck was the sole driving force for the rise of Porzingis minimizes what made the pick possible. Expertise and preparation by scouting personnel are vital to draft selections to every team every season. That’s precisely why Guillermo “Willy” Hernangómez’s rookie year was the only thing Knicks fans looked forward to after January.

With a draft chock full of potential superstars and busts, the Knicks scouting team will have their work cut out for them again, especially when they’re on the clock. So, relax, panicky Knick fan. There are a lot of options, and most of them aren’t bad.

In recent history, the eighth pick has been viewed as a solid pick that can develop a solid contributor in a regular lineup. Generally, the best case scenario would be developing a solid role player. The next best would be a bench player who can hold down the position as a rotational big man or a 3-and-D wing. While the current draft has been hailed as one of the deepest in recent memory, expecting a slew of perennial all-stars going in the first round is an expectation to leave at home on draft night. The last player of legitimate consequence to be drafted at the eight spot was Rudy Gay in 2006, drafted by the Houston Rockets (via Basketball-Reference). Granted, both Gordon Hayward and Paul George were both selected after the eighth pick, but this isn’t 2010, and Gay has drifted into irrelevance. So, it’s only fair to give a realistic look at the players who could still be on the board, or what other moves the Knicks could take.

Second Round Value: Dillon Brooks

Below is a psuedo-mock draft with vague projections that are necessary for hashing out the Knicks contingency plan if things were to go awry. Take a look at our 2017 Draft Preview for a more in-depth breakdown of these potential NBA stars. If you thought the Knicks were making the playoffs at the beginning of the 2016–17 season, you may want to brace yourself. This might bring you down. Also, don’t panic.

Markelle Fultz (no. 1)

He’s gone, if not the number 1, he’s without a doubt at 2.

Josh Jackson & Jayson Tatum (N/A)

Both Jackson and Tatum are likely to go before the eighth pick. Everything is pointing toward the Knicks shopping for a point guard, so, the wings are probably out of the question. However, they’re still useful in that they’ll hopefully take up spots that the Knicks prospective point guards won’t.

De’Aaron Fox (Top 5)

Kentucky’s lead guard from the 2016–17 season is likely gone early in the lottery. The 6’4″ point guard rooked Ball during March Madness by scoring 39 points, setting a March Madness record for freshman, and his draft stock has been sky high since. He’s top 5, and he is not 5.

Malik Monk (Top 6)

Kentucky’s second guard is anything but second fiddle to his counterpart De’Aaron Fox. He’s been eyed by both the Knicks and 76ers. So, if either of the two dark horse stretch forwards Jonathon Isaac or Lauri Markkanen were to be passed on, Monk would be the guard to take their place. Heck, he even stands the chance of going before Lonzo Ball (just maybe).

Dennis Smith, Jr. (Before 8)

Dennis Smith, Jr., point guard for NC State, has been looking like the Knicks favorite for about a month now. Realistically, he could be the guy. His draft stock is just high enough to put him in the top 10, and some teams selecting before the Knicks may opt for wings or forwards instead of point guards. The Knicks need a ball handler. Smith could be that if he doesn’t get picked up before. Unfortunately for New York, the 76ers, Suns, and Magic, teams selecting before the Knicks have all shown interest in Smith.

Scouting Report: Dennis Smith, Jr.

Lonzo Ball (2–8)

Lonzo Ball sits so low here mostly due to the controversies surrounding him: his awkward shooting motion, ultimately losing his March Madness match ups against fellow potential lottery picks, and his father’s personality that can be likened to a nasty bout of PR leprosy all could lead to him dropping deep into the top 10. Honestly, that would still be a pretty impressive disappointment. His upside (height, getting to the rim, and court vision) gives the feel of a high draft pick in spite of his shortcomings. However, so far he’s only scheduled to workout for the Los Angeles Lakers. It’s doubtful any high selecting team is willing to take a chance on a player aiming for extreme exclusivity. Let’s not pretend he’s coming from Lower Merion High School.

Jonathon Isaac or Lauri Markkanen

In order for the Knicks to get a run at any of the high prospective point guards in the draft either of these forwards would have to be drafted before the eighth pick. It’s looking 50–50 since the Timberwolves may be trying to find help for Karl-Anthony Towns. This would only work in the Knicks favor if the help was sought at the wing or center spot. The Suns could opt for help on the front end as well. However, a back court upgrade could mean a wing, and Monk or Ball could fill that vacuum.

With that nasty speculative mock draft out of the way, we can sum up the previous with: no. 1 spot being occupied by Markelle Fultz, three spots occupied by Tatum, Jackson, and Isaac or Markkanen, and 3–4 interchangeable draft selections that will undoubtedly consist of backcourt players in Fox, Smith, Monk, and Ball; we have a vague but reasonable selection of scenarios to mull over (mostly in pain, but don’t panic).

In the worst case scenario, all of the aforementioned guards will be selected before the eighth pick. With five highly touted backcourt prospects projected to go in the top 8, it’s possible that teams like the Minnesota Timberwolves and the Phoenix Suns choose to part ways with their incumbent point guards. A newly selected draft pick holding the same team’s jersey is a surefire way to let someone know they’ve got the pink slip. Who’s left in the prospect pile to dig through?

Frank Ntilikina

The 6’5″ French reserve was scouted by Steve Mills himself, a move that is reminiscent of Porzingis’ selection to summers prior. Our own draft preview reveals his glaring weaknesses and illustrates why so many teams wouldn’t risk a top 10 selection on the 18-year-old, but with the possibility of the first seven picks being all guards, he could be all the Knicks are left with if New York so chooses to draft a guard at eight, but don’t panic: having pro minutes so early in his career might give him a boost in basketball I.Q. over other draft picks, and, at 18 years old, the sky is the limit.

A Foreign Affair with France: Frank Ntilikina

Trade the eighth pick

If only left with “scraps” from the early draft, then the Knicks might opt to trade their pick. Historically, the Knicks have done terribly with trading draft picks. The team only recently recovered from the draft pick hangover they suffered at the hands of the Andrea Bargnani trade.

There are few targets, but the Knicks could possibly talk themselves into are D’Angelo Russell or Ricky Rubio. After the draft lottery, trade rumors surfaced about Russell being shopped around by a disenchanted Lakers team. With the second pick in a loaded draft, it’s hard to blame Magic Johnson and the Lakers newly-christened front office. Before the trade deadline, the New York Knicks and the Minnesota Timberwolves flirted with a one-for-one trade of Ricky Rubio and Derrick Rose. It wouldn’t be surprising if the Timberwolves could be tempted with the pairing of the seventh and eighth in the uniquely deep 2017 NBA Draft with Rose entering free agency and the Knicks soul-searching for a back court floor general.

In conclusion, with the most sought after point guards selected, the New York Knicks course of action is most likely similar to the following:

1. Draft Best Guard Available (however all of the premier guards could be gone before seven in the nightmare scenario)
2. Draft Frank Ntilikina — He will undoubtedly be available
3. Trade for a young-ish, budding point guard — Rubio and D.Lo make the top of the list due to their current team’s specific situations
4. Draft Best Available Player — As vague as this is, it is not devoid of attractive options.

Louisville’s Donovan Mitchell is a guard just out of lottery projections who could provide the defensive presence on the perimeter pundits have been harping on. If Tatum or Jackson fall to eight (meaning most of the sought after guards have been selected), then the Knicks may have no choice but to settle for a wing.

The Knicks drafting and scouting personnel have a lot of work cut out for them even before draft day. Contingency plans are unnerving because they take into account the most dreadful scenarios, but it helps to temper draft day pipe dreams with the sobering reality that every team is trying to win out. The eighth pick could go a lot of ways, and not a single one is certain to lead to a sure thing at point guard.

See? That wasn’t too painful. We went through a barrage of the likely unfortunate draft scenarios for the Knicks and we didn’t panic one bit. Draft night is June 22nd, and as long as the front office trusts their streaking draft personnel, it’ll be smooth sailing until free agency. Panicking might feel good for a moment, but as a northeast Ohio native, trust me, winning feels so much better.

— Ty Jordan, staff writer

Follow The Knicks Wall on Facebook and Twitter, and listen to the TKW Podcast on SoundCloud for more coverage of the team. Check out the 2017 NBA Draft preview page for enhanced analysis of prospects in the draft.

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